Source: https://www.guidedmind.com/
We wake up. We brush our teeth (well, most of us). We open our television, and while sipping a cup of coffee, start watching the news.
And what do we see? There is some great guy who did something amazing. Maybe it's a doctor today, who transplanted a heart and saved the patient from dying in his last minute. Or a 13-year-old kid, who just earned Rs. 200000 in the stock market. Or maybe a rockstar, who just released his 20th album in the last month.
You see this. You get excited. You even get motivated. And it is at that very day, that you promise yourself to become a rockstar.
What is your probability of success? Of course, you think it's a 100%. But is it?
The answer is NO.
Your chances of success are just a tiny fraction above zero, and even that's overstating it.
Welcome to the Survivorship Bias, my friends. Because triumph is made more visible than failure, we usually tend to overestimate our chances of succeeding.
And that might just be the case with you now. You might be thinking of starting a business, just because your neighbor bought a Lamborghini last week. You are sure you'll succeed, but will you?
You might be thinking of becoming a doctor because your favorite doctor just saved another life. You want to be like him (and you are sure you will).
Or you might be just like me. You started a new blog, hoping to earn in millions, just because others are already earning so. (That's what I actually have in mind).
I might succeed. I might not. But during my time writing this, I am sure I will.
Survivorship Bias is not something uncommon or unheard of. But definitely, it is something unquestioned of. We do stuff just because we see one person succeeding. But we fail to notice the 10000s who didn't. And because it is the success stories which garner the most attention, social media conveniently forgets to mention it.
We go for engineering and medical degrees, hoping to be that guy who earns dollars every minute. And when that doesn't go as planned, we cry our hearts out.
We invest in stock markets because everyone earns so. And even after losing half of our salary, we haven't made a single penny.
I am not saying that you can't succeed. You can. But that's it. You can.
Next time you choose a field or a profession, don't just go looking for the Einsteins and Hawkings of the era; make sure you also see the 10000s Adityas the world knows not of. And be prepared to be one of them.
As our favorite (or maybe just mine) MJ says:
Source: www.pinterest.co.uk
Because believe it or not, most of your life is not in your hands.
And that's okay.
-From Rolf Doebli's "The Art of Thinking Clearly."
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